As in many communities, November was a slow real estate month this year for Auburn, California.  Unit volume was down 54% from last year, with thirty-five units selling in November of 2006 and only sixteen units selling this November. 

The small number of sales this November — and the small size of the Auburn market overall with only twenty-seven homes selling each month — led to an interesting statistical fluke this November.   It’s axiomatic that there are three kinds of lies:  lies, damned lies, and statistics.  (Or put another way:  “Figures don’t like, but liars figure.”)  So in November you can have your choice of the following statements, either one of which is true:

• Prices are down a whopping 20.8% from last year!!!
• Prices have not changed from last year.

You see, the average sale price fell 20.8% from November to November, from $492,271 in November of 2006 to $389,900 in November of 2007.  But in an interesting twist of fate, sold homes last November averaged 2072 square feet, versus 1641 square feet this year, and that is — wait for it — also a 20.8% decrease!  So the net result on a sold price per square foot basis is that prices haven’t changed.  (Actually, due to a bit of rounding error, sold price per square foot actually rose 2 cents over the course of the year.)

The number of foreclosures and short sales in Auburn are very low compared to Placer County as a whole, making up 6.3% and 6.7% of active inventory, respectively.

November was a bit of an off month for Rocklin real estate.  With only 31 sold units, unit volume was down 53% from last November’s sales of 66 units.  This year’s small crop of homes was quite a bit bigger than last year’s, at 2447 square feet versus last year’s 2236 square feet.  This increase in size made up for most of the savings.  Sold price per square foot dropped 13.9% from year to year, from $210.32 last year to $181.15 this year.

In November, the average home sold for $387,000, down 5.7% from last year’s average of $407,500 — though see our comments above about size.  The median price fell 5%, from $407,500 last November to $387,000 this November.

Both the number of short sales and the number of foreclosures in active inventory are somewhat higher in Rocklin than for Placer County as a whole.  Rocklin’s inventory contains 13.6% REOs and 19.5% short sales, compared to 11.4% REOs and 16.5% short sales for Placer County.  Nevertheless, Rocklin has about a month less of inventory than Placer County as a whole, 7.98 months as opposed to 8.91 months for Placer County.

The real estate market in Lincoln in November put in a strong showing compared to Placer County as a whole.  While average prices county wide fell more than 14%, the average price of a home in Lincoln, California was $429,912, down only 8.7% from last year’s average of $470,869.  The median price of a home in Lincoln in November was $379,000, down 8.9% from last year’s median of $416,000.

Unit volume also only fell moderately, 8.5% from year to year, as opposed to 31.1% county wide.  The expired to sold ratio dropped from year to year, albeit slightly, from 81.4% last year to 77.8% this year.

Foreclosures accounted for 22.2% of sales this year, and 13.9% of the homes in active inventory are bank owned foreclosures (REOs), while another 27.6% of active listings are short sales.

November’s numbers in Placer County reflect the general slowdown in the real estate market, but compared to the numbers for Sacramento County, Placer County is holding up fairly well.  In November, 228 units sold in Placer County, down 31.1% from last November’s 331 units.  The average home sold in Placer County for $424,415, down 14.8% from last November’s average of $497,946.  This year’s homes were slightly smaller on average, however.  As a result, sold price per square foot feel off more modestly.  In November, 2007, the average sold price per square foot in Placer County was $201.05, down 12.1% from the average in November, 2006 of $228.84.

Though Placer County’s inventory of 8.91 months is well in the buyer’s market territory, it is somewhat low compared to the 11.21 months of inventory in Sacramento County.  Sacramento County is also experiencing a higher foreclosure rate.  In active inventory, for example, 24% of Sacramento homes are bank foreclosures, compared to only 11.4% in Placer County.  Similarly, short sales in Sacramento County account for 26.5% of inventory, while in Placer County that number is only 16.5%.

The numbers are in for Roseville for November, 2007.  The average home sold in Roseville this November for $383,605, down 17.3% from last year’s average of $463,647.  However, at least some this drop was due to this year’s average home being 1976 square feet versus 2051 square feet last year.  As a result, the average sold price per square foot dropped less dramatically (well, a little less dramatically, anyway, but we’ll take what we can get).  Sold price per square foot for Roseville homes in November averaged $194.13, a 14.1% decline from last November’s average of $226.06.

The number of foreclosures in Roseville — and in Placer County as a whole — is midway between the Sacramento County numbers, which are quite high, and the low numbers in El Dorado County.  In active inventory, 15.2% of homes are bank owned foreclosures, and 21.7% are short sales.  Of the November sales, 23.5% were bank owned foreclosures and 17.6% were short sales.

Although unit volume in November was a pathetic 41.4% of last November’s unit volume, other recent months must have made up for it, because inventory in Roseville continues to be somewhat low compared to Sacramento or Placer County as a whole.  Currently there are 7.5 months of unsold inventory, down from 8.2 months in October.

Related Links

Browse Roseville Real Estate by Price and Location

General Home Search — Greater Roseville Area

Roseville Real Estate Market Update (October)

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