What a change Lincoln has been through over the past year! As with all communities where brand new homes were growing during the real estate boom years, Lincoln has seen some big price drops in the downturn. The reason, of course, is the number of foreclosures. 48 foreclosures and 19 short sales sold in the month of October in Lincoln. That makes up 55.2% and 21.8% of all sales respectively. Non-distressed sales fell by 52.1% – a total of 20 non-distressed homes sold, albeit at huge discounts. Overall sales were up by 52.8%.

Sold price per square foot fell by 23.8% – from last October’s $188.51 to this year’s $143.71 and so home buyers were able to afford a home 5.1% bigger than last year – about a hundred square feet bigger. The average home sold for 19.9% lower than last October’s high of $409,984 to $328,440.

Currently, active inventory is almost equally divided between non-distressed and distressed homes. But that could change if the 199 short sales bring prices down further. Lincoln currently has 6.4 months of inventory (based on the last 12 months of sales) and 5.5 months of inventory based on the last 6 months of sales.

Those that have to sell, must. Those that don’t, don’t. (With apologies to Bernard Shaw.) Well, you get the idea. 9 foreclosed homes and 2 short sales sold in Granite Bay this October and while that might not seem like a lot to some homeowners, especially in Sacramento county, it is enough in Granite Bay to cause a sea-change in the real estate landscape. Compare these numbers to the fact that only one foreclosure and one short sale sold last year in October. As such, non-distressed home sales have fallen by 54.5% over last October.

The average home which would have sold for $913,423 last October has now suffered a 15.8% decline in price and would sell for $768,978 based on this October’s numbers. Median price has also fallen for the same period. It dipped 26.1% – from $875,000 to $647,000. Sold price per square foot – a more accurate measure of price declines – fell 17.7% from $265.81 to $218.78 for the same period.

Overall unit volume of sales increased 23.1% and inventory currently rests at 13 months (based on the last year) and 10.9 months (based on the last six months of sales.)

We see the same trend with real estate in Roseville in Placer county as Fair Oaks in Sacramento county: namely that sales and prices have a direct relationship. Sales and prices are both down again this October in Roseville. I think we are beginning to see a trend emerge.

Overall sales fell by 26.5% this October over last year for the same period. Non-distressed sales fell by 56.6%. The majority of the sales are now foreclosures, which gained momentum (32% more foreclosures sold this October) and short sales (44.2% more sold this October as compared with the last.)

Distressed sales now make up the majority of the houses sold in Roseville. 44.6% are foreclosures, 15.7% are short sales and 39.8% are non-distressed. This is a marked change from last October where non-distressed homes still outnumbered distress sales by a 2 to 1 majority.

Accordingly, price per square foot has fallen by 19.3% from last October’s high of $195.31 to $157.59 this October. Average sales price for a house in Roseville is now $339,280 – 18.7% lower than last year’s October average of $417,345. Median sales price has fallen 20% from $375,000 to $300,000 for the same period.

Total inventory based on the last twelve months of sales is at 5 months and based on last 6 months of sales is at 4.2 months. Interestingly, total foreclosure inventory is at 1.6 and 1.3 months based on last 12 months and 6 months of sales respectively.

Placer county has always been different from Sacramento county and this month’s market report underlines that fact. While in Sacramento county, foreclosures have fueled falling prices and higher sales all around, Placer county has seen a decline in sales. There has been in fact a drop of 18.4% in overall sales from last October to this October. Foreclosures however saw an almost 100% increase – from 58 last October to 114 this last month. Last year, the majority of sales were non-distressed (74.7%); this October they are evenly divided between foreclosures on one side and non-distressed and short sales on the other. See? I told you Placer county was its own story.

That said, Placer county has not been immune to the price declines we are seeing everywhere. Sold price per square foot was down 21.4% over last October to rest at $161.99. Average sales price is down 19.5% from last October’s high of $458,127 to $368,980. Median price is down 22.4% from $399,680 (October 2007) to $310,000 this October.

Based on the last 12 months of sales, inventory in Placer county sits at 7.3 months and based on the last 6 months of sales inventory sits at 6.2 months.