Is it possible to have a seller’s market where prices are falling? I believe it is, and our real estate market here in Roseville certainly fits the bill.
Why do I say it’s a seller’s market? The most important reason are the numbers for unsold inventory. In fact, the traditional rule-of-thumb definition for a seller’s market is one where we have less than six months of unsold inventory. (In other words, if you stopped listing homes for sale beginning today, it would take less than six months to sell off what’s currently on the market). Indeed, even when you factor in the short sales, where there are 8.9 months of inventory, the average for all categories is still only 3.8 months of inventory. If you look at foreclosures, the inventory figure is an extremely low 1.1 months, reflecting both the reduced prices on foreclosures and the ease of a foreclosure transaction relative to a short sale.
Perhaps the most encouraging number of all this month in Roseville is the non-distressed category, where there are only 2.2 months of inventory. This number compares favorably to some of the foreclosure inventory numbers we’ve seen up until recently, and this is for homes with equity. (Imagine that!)
Since inventory is partly a reflection of demand, we’d expect to see demand increasing right now as well, and sure enough, the volume of sales is up 14.6% over last year, from 151 homes sold April year to 173 homes sold this April.
Does this mean you’re going to get the price that you really want to get for your home? Well, if you’re like most seller’s we’ve worked with, you’re going to find that you won’t, and that your expectations are still too high. Unfortunately, you still have to compete with the short sale and foreclosure inventory, and these homes continue to drive down prices. This year the average sold price per square foot is down 6.1% from the same time last year, from $143.74 per square foot last year to $134.94 this year. With the average sized home in Roseville coming in at 2005 square feet, that puts this year’s April’s average sold price at $270,615, down from $289,859 last April.
Of course, if you are looking to sell, please keep in mind that all the numbers posted here are for the statistical “average” home — what you’ll be able to net for your home will depend on location, size, and condition. We’re always happy to do a detailed market analysis if you believe you might have a need to sell. Just let us know by using our Contact Form. We’re not arm twisters so you won’t have to worry about that (of course, the “bad news” — or should that read “more good news” — is we won’t lie to you about price, so if you’re looking for someone to do that we won’t be able to help on that score). Too often we’ve found that seller’s who want to “test the market” find that it’s as bad as they thought it was when they started, only now they have to reduce the price even further than if they were aggressive to begin with because their home is shop-worn and prices have been falling in the meantime.
All in all, however, we’re encouraged by enough by both the inventory numbers and increasing demand in Roseville to say that if you do the right things to get your home ready to sell and price it well, you’ll have less problem selling getting your home sold than you expect in this market.
We’ve pasted some of our statistical data below so you can check it out. Enjoy!
Unit Volume Data
|Units Sold||April, 2010||April, 2011||Change|
|(% of total units)||28.5%||31.8%|
|Short Sales Sold||39||42||7.7%|
|(% of total units)||25.8%||24.3%|
|(% of total units)||45.7%||43.9%|
|Prices||April, 2010||April, 2011||Change|
|Sold Price / Square Foot||$143.74||$134.94||-6.1%|
|Average List Price||$294,806||$277,626||-5.8%|
|Average Sale Price||$289,859||$270,615||-6.6%|
|Median Sale Price||$275000||$250000||-9.1%|
Inventory (Based on 12 months of prior sales)
|Sale Type||Average Sales Per Month||Active||Months of Inventory|