Is it possible to have a seller’s market where prices are falling?  I believe it is, and our real estate market here in Roseville certainly fits the bill.

Why do I say it’s a seller’s market?   The most important reason are the numbers for unsold inventory.  In fact, the traditional rule-of-thumb definition for a seller’s market is one where we have less than six months of unsold inventory.  (In other words, if you stopped listing homes for sale beginning today, it would take less than six months to sell off what’s currently on the market).  Indeed, even when you factor in the short sales, where there are 8.9 months of inventory, the average for all categories is still only 3.8 months of inventory.  If you look at foreclosures, the inventory figure is an extremely low 1.1 months, reflecting both the reduced prices on foreclosures and the ease of a foreclosure transaction relative to  a short sale.

Perhaps the most encouraging number of all this month in Roseville is the non-distressed category, where there are only 2.2 months of inventory.  This number compares favorably to some of the foreclosure inventory numbers we’ve seen up until recently, and this is for homes with equity.  (Imagine that!)

Since inventory is partly a reflection of demand, we’d expect to see demand increasing right now as well, and sure enough, the volume of sales is up 14.6% over last year, from 151 homes sold April year to 173 homes sold this April.

Does this mean you’re going to get the price that you really want to get for your home?  Well, if you’re like most seller’s we’ve worked with, you’re going to find that you won’t, and that your expectations are still too high.  Unfortunately, you still have to compete with the short sale and foreclosure inventory, and these homes continue to drive down prices.  This year the average sold price per square foot is down 6.1% from the same time last year, from $143.74 per square foot last year to $134.94 this year.  With the average sized home in Roseville coming in at 2005 square feet, that puts this year’s April’s average sold price at $270,615, down from $289,859 last April.

Of course, if you are looking to sell, please keep in mind that all the numbers posted here are for the statistical  “average” home — what you’ll be able to net for your home will depend on location, size, and condition.  We’re always happy to do a detailed market analysis if you believe you might have a need to sell.  Just let us know by using our Contact Form.  We’re not arm twisters so you won’t have to worry about that (of course, the “bad news” — or should that read “more good news” — is we won’t lie to you about price, so if you’re looking for someone to do that we won’t be able to help on that score).  Too often we’ve found that seller’s who want to “test the market” find that it’s as bad as they thought it was when they started, only now they have to reduce the price even further than if they were aggressive to begin with because their home is shop-worn and prices have been falling in the meantime.

All in all, however, we’re encouraged by enough by both the inventory numbers and increasing demand in Roseville to say that if you do the right things to get your home ready to sell and price it well, you’ll have less problem selling getting your home sold than you expect in this market.

We’ve pasted some of our statistical data below so you can check it out.  Enjoy!

Unit Volume Data

Price Data

Inventory (Based on 12 months of prior sales)

86 homes sold in Lincoln this April, pretty much in line with the numbers for last April. Unit volume shows a modest increase of 4.9% year over year, which is nothing to write home about. However, what is interesting to note is that foreclosure sales have dropped 23% year over year while short sales have gained 200%. Non-distressed sales remain mainly unchanged for the same period. 2 out of 3 homes sold are currently distress sales. 

Average sold price per square foot is currently $125.85 down 11.4% from last April’s $142.07. Average sales price is $298,676, also down 11.5% year over year from a high of $337,327. Median sales price is $277,450. That’s a fall of 13.3% year over year from a high of $320,000. 

Inventory is at 5.4 months based on the last year of sales and 6.1 months based on the last six months of sales. Foreclosure inventory in the Lincoln area is at 0.7 months and 0.8 months respectively.

A total of 74 homes sold this month in Lincoln and the market doesn’t seem much different than it was a year ago. 36 foreclosures, 12 short sales and 26 non-distressed homes closed escrow in March. Foreclosure sales are up 16% from a year ago and short sales up 100% for the same period. Non-distressed sales are down year over year by 38.1% – a statistic that surprises no one. Overall unit volume is down 6.3% year over year.

Prices are following the downward curve as well. The average sold price per square foot is now $134.26 down 13.8% year over year from a high of $155.73. The average sale price is down 22.2% year over year from $364,777 to rest at $283,686. Median sales price is down 21.2% for the same period to $264,000. Interestingly enough, the average home sold is also about 10% smaller than it was a year ago so the more accurate measure of home prices is the average price per square foot.

Inventory is at 5.8 months based on the last year of sales and 6.6 months based on the last six months of sales. Foreclosure inventory is at 1.2 months and 1.3 months respectively.

A total of 55 homes sold in Rocklin last month, down 6.8% year over year from 59. And we see a drop in every kind of real estate sale – except short sales. 19 foreclosures sold in March (that is 34.5% of all sales) 15 short sales (or 27.3% of all sales) and 21 non-distressed homes (38.2% of all sales) but for all that we see a year over year drop of 24% in foreclosures and a 19.2% drop in non-distressed sales. Short sales jumped 87.5% over last March’s sales. 

Average sold price per square foot doesn’t give us any better news either. It has fallen 15.5% year over year from $166.73 to $140.83. The average sales price is currently $334,104 – that’s a year over year drop of 10.4% from a high of $372,794. Median price hasn’t fared any better. It registered a drop of 15.5% year over year from $355,000 last March to currently $299,900.

Inventory is at 4.9 months based on the last year of sales and 6.2 months based on the last six months of sales, showing the recent slowdown in sales in this area.

A total of 133 homes sold in Roseville this month, barely higher than last March’s 128. And while there seems to be little change in unit volume year over year, the real estate landscape in Roseville does seem to have changed quite a bit. Compare the 68 foreclosure sales this March with the 49 last March. That is a 39% increase year over year. Or the whopping 187% in short sales year over year. 23 short sales closed escrow this March versus just 8 last year at the same time. Needless to say with distress sales taking the cake, non-distressed sales fell 41% year over year. Just 42 sales this March versus 71 last March. 

Distress sales dominate the market with foreclosures taking up 51% of the sales pie and short sales taking 17%. Just under a third of all real estate sold in Roseville last month was non-distressed. A big change year over year from more than 55% of all sales being non-distressed.

And of course, the prices reflect that as well. Year over year, the average price per square foot has fallen 16.5% from a high of $172.85 to rest at $144.29. The average sales price has fallen 20.2% from $367,318 to $293,153. Median sales price has also dropped 17.3% from $344,500 to rest at $285,000. 

Inventory in Roseville is at 4.1 months based on the last year of sales and 5 months based on the last six months of sales.

On the face of it, nothing seems like it has changed much in the Placer county real estate market landscape since last March: 334 homes sold this March as compared with 324 year over year. But if you look closer, you’ll notice that the non-distressed sales and foreclosure sales numbers have reversed. Whereas last March, non-distressed sales made up 50% of the total sales, today foreclosures have taken that coveted spot. As a result, non-distressed sales have lost ground – about 37% to be precise year over year. Short sales have gained 144% year over year and foreclosures have gained 37% for the same period.

Average sold price per square foot is currently at $147.98. That is a drop of 16.5% year over year from a high of $177.27. This is the most accurate measure of a home’s price since home buyers in Placer county also bought homes on average 7.2% smaller than last year. Average sales price is currently at $309,201 and median sales price is at $285,000.

Inventory is at 6.1 months based on the last 12 months of sales and 7.2 months based on the last six months of sales. Foreclosure inventory is at 1.3 and 1.4 months.

Short sales seem to be the new gold mine in real estate and Roseville is no exception to the rule. Although we see an overall decline in unit volume, short sales are up! A total of 82 homes sold in Roseville – 45 foreclosure sales, 17 short sales and 20 non-distressed homes. Foreclosure sales have suffered a decline of 13.5% year over year and non-distressed sales also show a decline of 60% for the same period. But short sales have gained 143%! Overall unit volume is down 25% year over year.

Sold price per square foot has declined 21.4% year over year. Currently at $138.86, it has fallen from its high of $176.73 of last February, which seems to have afforded some homebuyers a home bigger by about 5% than last year! Of course, the average sales price being down by 18% may have something to do with that as well. It is currently at $301,472 down from $366,384. Median sales price is down 21% from $350,000 to $277,500.

Inventory in Roseville is at 2 months (based on the last year of sales) and 2.2 months (based on the last six months of sales).

The Rocklin real estate landscape is not much changed since last year: 39 homes sold this January as compared with 36 last January. The major difference – of course – is in the kind of homes that sold. Foreclosure sales are up 69.2% year over year: 22 this January as compared with 13 last. And non-distressed sales are down 50%. Just 8 non-distressed homes sold this year as compared with 16 last year. Which makes the majority of home sales in Rocklin distress sales. In fact, 79.5% of sales are either foreclosures or short sales, with only a fifth of all sales falling in the non-distressed category.

The prices don’t tell any better news either: The average price per square foot has fallen 19.2% from $175.81 to $142.10 year over year. The average sales price has fallen 27.7% year over year from $411,807 to rest at $297,916. The median sales price has fallen 20.6% for the same period from $352,450 to $280,000. Interestingly enough, the average home sold in Rocklin is also 10% smaller this year than last. So the most accurate measure of home prices here is the average price per square foot.

Inventory is at 4.6 months based on the last year of sales and 4.8 months based on the last six months of sales. Foreclosure inventory is at 0.9 months.

Short sales take the cake again! Now you might ask why short sales? Why the smallest number in all the sales? Well, that’s because they seem to have the largest change. A total of 270 homes sold in Placer county in January of which 139 were foreclosure sales, 46 were short sales and 85 were non-distressed properties. In terms of percentages they seem the same as last month, but year over year, short sales have seen 100% increase. Now, the numbers do not tell us how long these short sales have remained open escrows, but suffice it to say that they are beginning to close.

Overall unit volume is up by 24% while non-distressed homes suffered a decline in sales of about 15% year over year.

The average home sold for 26.1% less this January than it would have last year at the same time. Today’s average sales price is $303,539 as compared to the high last January of $410,805. A more accurate measure, the sold price per square foot doesn’t offer up much to cheer either. It shows a decline of 21.4% year over year from $186.45 to $146.59. Median sales price is down 19% year over year from $345,000 to $279,608.

Inventory in Placer county is at 5.9 months based on the last year of sales and six months based on the last six months of sales. Of course, that doesn’t tell the entire story because foreclosure inventory is much, much lower at 1.6 months and 1.5 months respectively. The more worrisome number is the short sale inventory at 17.6 months and 15.1 months. Here’s hoping that the recent surge in closed short sales rises and gives the rest of us some hope in this real estate market!

Perhaps the banks are finally getting a grasp on the seriousness of the real estate downturn and are beginning to accept short sales now. That definitely seems to be the case in Lincoln anyway. We are seeing a 367% increase in short sales year over year along with a 58% increase in foreclosure sales. Non-distressed home sales suffered a decline of 22.2% year over year. Overall unit volume is up by 35%. 61.3% of all sales are now distress sales, while the rest are non-distressed. When we compare that with how evenly distressed and non-distressed sales were divided last year at the same time, we get a better idea of the current real estate market in Lincoln.

Sold price per square foot has fallen 17% year over year. It has dropped from a high of $165.72 to today’s low of $137.65. Average sales price has also fallen 17%. The average home in Lincoln is now worth only $313,464 as compared to its price last December at $376,901. Median sales price has dropped 13% from $337,500 to today’s low of $295,000.

Inventory in Rocklin is at 5.4 months based on the last year of sales  and 5.1 months based on the last six months of sales. There are currently 440 properties on the market for sale.