The Roseville real estate market landscape is mostly unchanged from last month. Distress sales still make up the majority of all sales here. 59% of all sales are now distress sales. In the month of December especially 54 foreclosures and 23 short sales sold, as compared with only 52 non-distressed home sales. The major difference is the year over year number for short sales: an increase of over 283%! Foreclosure sales were up by 64% and non-distressed sales declined by 7%. Overall unit volume sales increased by 36% year over year.

Average sold price per square foot in Roseville has now dropped 19.2% from its high of $182.60 to $147.46 year over year. Average sale price has dropped 15% from $364,187 to $308,579. Obviously, nothing to cheer about, unless you are looking to buy a home in or around Roseville. This is evidenced by the average home sold in Roseville, which is now 5% bigger than it was last year at the same time. Median price has also dropped – a 10% decline year over year – from $335,000 to rest at $300,600.

Inventory is at 3.9 months based on the average homes sold over the last year and 3.6 months based on the number of homes sold in Roseville in the last six months.

The biggest winner for the most change in Placer county this month is clearly the short sales chunk of real estate sales. While most of us in the real estate business (me included) like to warn our home buyers that short sales rarely sell – thanks to the bank approval process which can take longer than a month and sometimes never – we might have to change our tune. Closed short sales have undergone a 257% increase since year over year in Placer county and now make up 16% of all sales! Foreclosures, of course, continue to dominate the market at 47.6% of sales and non-distressed homes are at 36.2% – roughly a third, which is where they were last month as well.

Unit volume is up 19.8% year over year. However, non-distressed sales have fallen by 34% over last December.

The market seems largely unchanged over last month, but markedly different over last year in terms of prices as well. Sold price per square foot has fallen 22.3% year over year – from a high of $192.64 to $149.72. Last month, it was $155.52. The average sales price last month was $333,473. It is currently $322,245, not a huge change from last month, but a drop of 27% year over year, down from a high of $440,433. Median sales price is also down 18% year over year from $365,000 to $300,000 in December 2008.

Inventory in Placer county is currently at 5.8 months based on the last year of sales and 5.3 months based on the last six months of sales. This is better than last month’s numbers of 6.3 months and 5.5 months for the same period. Incidentally, this is the second month in a row of better inventory numbers.

Unit volume in Roseville has increased 15.5% over last November. Now this might not seem like a large number until you see that foreclosure sales are up 250% and short sales are up 67% for the same period. Only non-distressed sales have seen a drop in unit volume: a 51% drop, to be precise. 63 foreclosures sold in November in Roseville, 20 short sales also sold and the remaining 36 were non-distressed sales.

53% of all sales are now foreclosures, 17% are short sales and the rest non-distressed. Roseville is amongst the few areas in the tri-county area where a large third of all sales are non-distressed. We seem to see non-distressed sales take up a smaller and smaller portion of the sales pie every month.

And the reason (or it could be a chicken or egg question here) is that prices have fallen 21%. Average price per square foot has gone from a high of $192.58 last November to $151.92 this November. Average sales price also dropped 22% for the same period: from $383,670 to $299,792. Median sales price also suffered a loss of 19% from $364,900 to $295,000.

Inventory is at 4.4 months based on the last year of sales and at 3.7 months based on the last 6 months of sales.

Well, it’s nice to know that someone out there likes big houses! Whereas everywhere else, smaller and smaller homes are being sold, Lincoln has remained steady in its appreciation of big rambling homes. The average house selling in Lincoln is still right around 2200 square feet. But perhaps that is just the kind of home one finds here.

The rest of the news isn’t good, of course. There isn’t much good news in the real estate market lately unless you’re a buyer. Consider this: foreclosure sales have jumped 219% and short sales have jumped 180% since last November. Non-distressed sales have fallen 43.6% for the same period. 51.4% of all sales in November were foreclosures, 18.9% were short sales and a mere 29.7% were non-distressed. Which means more than two-third of all homes sold in Lincoln were distress sales.

A fact that always puts downward pressure on prices and this November was no exception. The average sold price per square foot in Lincoln has fallen 27.4% since last November from $189.08 to $137.23.  The average sales price has fallen 27.4% – hand in hand with the average sold price per square foot – from last November’s $427,736 to rest at $311,579. Median sales price has dropped 24.3% from $379,900 to $287,500 for the same period.

Inventory is at 6 months (based on the last year of sales) and 5.3 months (based on the last 6 months of sales.)

Distress sales have finally caught up in Placer county after lagging behind Sacramento county for a long time. In this way, Placer is a lot more like El Dorado than Sacramento. The majority of sales this November were distress sales, a marked change from last month’s real estate sales, which were evenly divided between distressed and non-distressed sales and the month before then, where non-distressed dominated the real estate scene. Here are the details.

148 foreclosures sold in November, making up 48.7% of all sales. 51 short sales also sold, making up 16.8% of all sales. Foreclosure sales then have increased 174% over last year and short sales are up 143% over last year. As usually happens, the increased number of foreclosures on the market fueled sales and unit volume was up by 20.6%. Nondistressed sales suffered a decline of 41% – only a third of the market is now made up of non-distressed properties.

Obviously, this change has put a downward pressure on real estate prices. Sold price per square foot has fallen again. Last month, it was $166.99. This month, it is $155.52 a drop of 21.8% over last year’s high of $198.93. The average sales price for a house is also down 20.5% from $419,476 last November to $333,473 this November. This is also lower than last month’s average of $368,980. Median price has also declined 17.6% over last November’s high of $375,000 to rest at $309,000.

Inventory is at 6.3 months based on the last 12 months of sales and 5.5 months based on the last 6 months of sales. This is slightly better than last month’s inventory numbers of 7.3 and 6.2 respectively, but it’s too soon to tell if it signifies anything as wonderful as a real estate recovery.

What a change Lincoln has been through over the past year! As with all communities where brand new homes were growing during the real estate boom years, Lincoln has seen some big price drops in the downturn. The reason, of course, is the number of foreclosures. 48 foreclosures and 19 short sales sold in the month of October in Lincoln. That makes up 55.2% and 21.8% of all sales respectively. Non-distressed sales fell by 52.1% – a total of 20 non-distressed homes sold, albeit at huge discounts. Overall sales were up by 52.8%.

Sold price per square foot fell by 23.8% – from last October’s $188.51 to this year’s $143.71 and so home buyers were able to afford a home 5.1% bigger than last year – about a hundred square feet bigger. The average home sold for 19.9% lower than last October’s high of $409,984 to $328,440.

Currently, active inventory is almost equally divided between non-distressed and distressed homes. But that could change if the 199 short sales bring prices down further. Lincoln currently has 6.4 months of inventory (based on the last 12 months of sales) and 5.5 months of inventory based on the last 6 months of sales.

Those that have to sell, must. Those that don’t, don’t. (With apologies to Bernard Shaw.) Well, you get the idea. 9 foreclosed homes and 2 short sales sold in Granite Bay this October and while that might not seem like a lot to some homeowners, especially in Sacramento county, it is enough in Granite Bay to cause a sea-change in the real estate landscape. Compare these numbers to the fact that only one foreclosure and one short sale sold last year in October. As such, non-distressed home sales have fallen by 54.5% over last October.

The average home which would have sold for $913,423 last October has now suffered a 15.8% decline in price and would sell for $768,978 based on this October’s numbers. Median price has also fallen for the same period. It dipped 26.1% – from $875,000 to $647,000. Sold price per square foot – a more accurate measure of price declines – fell 17.7% from $265.81 to $218.78 for the same period.

Overall unit volume of sales increased 23.1% and inventory currently rests at 13 months (based on the last year) and 10.9 months (based on the last six months of sales.)

We see the same trend with real estate in Roseville in Placer county as Fair Oaks in Sacramento county: namely that sales and prices have a direct relationship. Sales and prices are both down again this October in Roseville. I think we are beginning to see a trend emerge.

Overall sales fell by 26.5% this October over last year for the same period. Non-distressed sales fell by 56.6%. The majority of the sales are now foreclosures, which gained momentum (32% more foreclosures sold this October) and short sales (44.2% more sold this October as compared with the last.)

Distressed sales now make up the majority of the houses sold in Roseville. 44.6% are foreclosures, 15.7% are short sales and 39.8% are non-distressed. This is a marked change from last October where non-distressed homes still outnumbered distress sales by a 2 to 1 majority.

Accordingly, price per square foot has fallen by 19.3% from last October’s high of $195.31 to $157.59 this October. Average sales price for a house in Roseville is now $339,280 – 18.7% lower than last year’s October average of $417,345. Median sales price has fallen 20% from $375,000 to $300,000 for the same period.

Total inventory based on the last twelve months of sales is at 5 months and based on last 6 months of sales is at 4.2 months. Interestingly, total foreclosure inventory is at 1.6 and 1.3 months based on last 12 months and 6 months of sales respectively.

Where is everyone in Placer county going? Total volume of homes sold in September has almost doubled as compared to last September going from 245 homes sold to 455 sold in September 2008.

Foreclosures sold have more than quadrupled and so have short sales. What’s surprising is that almost the same number of non-distressed properties have also sold, which is not seen as often. Non-distressed sales seem to have an inverse relationship to foreclosures and short sales. Placer county seems to prove that theory wrong. Distressed properties now make up more than half the real estate sales in Placer county – 55% of homes sold in September were either foreclosures or short sales.

Maybe everyone just waited until September of this year to buy. With the average sales price falling 28.4% over last September who can blame them? The average sales price is now $348,455 bringing the average price per square foot to $161.57

Inventory in Placer county sits at 7.2 months based on the last 12 months of sales and 5.8 months based on the last 6 months of sales.

If I were a home seller in Folsom, I would be pretty thrilled right about now. Although falling home prices are nothing to be happy about unless you’re a home buyer, Folsom-dwellers should be glad their homes are retaining their value and – as compared to the rest of Sacramento county – are relatively stable in prices.

Average sales price in Folsom is now at $425,514, down 10.7% from September 2007. While this might seem like a large drop, one has only to look at Elk Grove, for example, to see how much better Folsom is really doing. Sold price per square foot is now $190.68 – down 12.1% from last September’s $217.05

Part of the reason Folsom has maintained its value is the relatively low number of foreclosures. The majority of homes sold are still non-distressed. However, the number of foreclosures has gone up pretty significantly this September: last September only 2 foreclosed homes sold. This year? 20. Last September 90% of sales were non-distressed. This year, while still the majority as mentioned earlier, non-distressed home sales make up 51.9% of the total sales pie.

Still, Folsom gives the rest of Sacramento county some hope. The drop in sales price is gradual enough that the more observant ones amongst us (that would be perhaps the people not directly involved in the market – hmmm – anyone? Hellooo?) can see how foreclosures are inversely related to price appreciation and can predict that when the foreclosure inventory gets absorbed by the real estate market, we will, very possibly see prices head up again.