Unless you’ve been living on Mars, you’re probably aware that the real estate market these days is a study in fear and loss, as some homeowners lose jobs and others lose the will to continue paying on debts that are larger than the value of the home.   So there’s bad news all around, and it’s a matter of degree when we say that the good news for Placer County is that the news there is “not as bad” as it is for neighboring Sacramento County.  For example, though just over a third (34.3%) of home sales in May in Sacramento County were non-distressed sales (that is, sales that were neither short sales nor foreclosures).  In El Dorado County the numbers were slightly higher at 37.3%, and in Placer County, fully 45.6% of the homes that sold in May in Placer County were non-distressed homes.   That’s still less than half of what sold, but again, Placer County gets the dubious comfort of bragging rights that it has the lowest foreclosure rate in the area.

Placer County real estate prices fell 9.4% from May to May on a sold price per square foot basis, from $147.47 per square foot in May of 2010 to $133.61 per square foot in May of 2011.  The average sale price fell 10.5% during this time, from $323,787 in 2010 to $288,496 in 2011.  In May the median selling price stood at $246,000, down 7.2% from last May’s $264,975.   In addition to having more non-distressed homes for sale than neighboring counties, Placerville’s unit volume is an exception to the rule as well.  While Sacramento County’s year-on-year unit volume is flat (down .2% from last year), and El Dorado County’s sales volume has decreased 5.4%, sales in Placer County are going strong.  At 491 homes sold through the Metrolist MLS this May as against 448 in May of 2010, unit volume has risen 9.6%.

In terms of inventory, Placer County has 5.1 months of homes in inventory overall, with 1.4 months of inventory for foreclosures, 4.8 months for non-distressed sales, and 9.5 months for short sales.

The raw numbers are below:

Price Data

Inventory (Based on 12 months of prior sales)

Inventory (Based on 6 months of prior sales)

Is it possible to have a seller’s market where prices are falling?  I believe it is, and our real estate market here in Roseville certainly fits the bill.

Why do I say it’s a seller’s market?   The most important reason are the numbers for unsold inventory.  In fact, the traditional rule-of-thumb definition for a seller’s market is one where we have less than six months of unsold inventory.  (In other words, if you stopped listing homes for sale beginning today, it would take less than six months to sell off what’s currently on the market).  Indeed, even when you factor in the short sales, where there are 8.9 months of inventory, the average for all categories is still only 3.8 months of inventory.  If you look at foreclosures, the inventory figure is an extremely low 1.1 months, reflecting both the reduced prices on foreclosures and the ease of a foreclosure transaction relative to  a short sale.

Perhaps the most encouraging number of all this month in Roseville is the non-distressed category, where there are only 2.2 months of inventory.  This number compares favorably to some of the foreclosure inventory numbers we’ve seen up until recently, and this is for homes with equity.  (Imagine that!)

Since inventory is partly a reflection of demand, we’d expect to see demand increasing right now as well, and sure enough, the volume of sales is up 14.6% over last year, from 151 homes sold April year to 173 homes sold this April.

Does this mean you’re going to get the price that you really want to get for your home?  Well, if you’re like most seller’s we’ve worked with, you’re going to find that you won’t, and that your expectations are still too high.  Unfortunately, you still have to compete with the short sale and foreclosure inventory, and these homes continue to drive down prices.  This year the average sold price per square foot is down 6.1% from the same time last year, from $143.74 per square foot last year to $134.94 this year.  With the average sized home in Roseville coming in at 2005 square feet, that puts this year’s April’s average sold price at $270,615, down from $289,859 last April.

Of course, if you are looking to sell, please keep in mind that all the numbers posted here are for the statistical  “average” home — what you’ll be able to net for your home will depend on location, size, and condition.  We’re always happy to do a detailed market analysis if you believe you might have a need to sell.  Just let us know by using our Contact Form.  We’re not arm twisters so you won’t have to worry about that (of course, the “bad news” — or should that read “more good news” — is we won’t lie to you about price, so if you’re looking for someone to do that we won’t be able to help on that score).  Too often we’ve found that seller’s who want to “test the market” find that it’s as bad as they thought it was when they started, only now they have to reduce the price even further than if they were aggressive to begin with because their home is shop-worn and prices have been falling in the meantime.

All in all, however, we’re encouraged by enough by both the inventory numbers and increasing demand in Roseville to say that if you do the right things to get your home ready to sell and price it well, you’ll have less problem selling getting your home sold than you expect in this market.

We’ve pasted some of our statistical data below so you can check it out.  Enjoy!

Unit Volume Data

Price Data

Inventory (Based on 12 months of prior sales)

Placer county has always been different from Sacramento county and this month’s market report underlines that fact. While in Sacramento county, foreclosures have fueled falling prices and higher sales all around, Placer county has seen a decline in sales. There has been in fact a drop of 18.4% in overall sales from last October to this October. Foreclosures however saw an almost 100% increase – from 58 last October to 114 this last month. Last year, the majority of sales were non-distressed (74.7%); this October they are evenly divided between foreclosures on one side and non-distressed and short sales on the other. See? I told you Placer county was its own story.

That said, Placer county has not been immune to the price declines we are seeing everywhere. Sold price per square foot was down 21.4% over last October to rest at $161.99. Average sales price is down 19.5% from last October’s high of $458,127 to $368,980. Median price is down 22.4% from $399,680 (October 2007) to $310,000 this October.

Based on the last 12 months of sales, inventory in Placer county sits at 7.3 months and based on the last 6 months of sales inventory sits at 6.2 months.

Looking for something to do this Halloween? Here are two highly recommended events you can attend:

Trick or Treat Faire at Sunset Center in Rocklin

Just for kids! (Accompanied by an adult) An event for kids at the elementary school age and younger. Dress up your young tots and take them to their first (of fifth) Halloween to do some trick or treating. Tickets are $5 per child and you might get to eat the candy yourself! From 4:00 p.m. to 6:30 p.m. A great alternative to traditional neighborhood trick or treating, the city of Rocklin organizes this event each year as a safer option. There are games, prizes and treat bags! And prizes are awarded for the best costume, so dress them up!

Callson Manor Haunted House

If you’re looking for a more serious… er… fright, head over to the Callson Manor Haunted House at the Placer County Fairgrounds in Roseville, which promises to be “an attraction of a higher caliber.” Tickets are $30 for the entire attraction. The Haunted House is open between 7:30 and 10:30 p.m.

Although their website doesn’t say anything about children and what ages are recommended, use your own discretion. And have a screaming good time!

I, for one, will be shivering under the sheets.

Where is everyone in Placer county going? Total volume of homes sold in September has almost doubled as compared to last September going from 245 homes sold to 455 sold in September 2008.

Foreclosures sold have more than quadrupled and so have short sales. What’s surprising is that almost the same number of non-distressed properties have also sold, which is not seen as often. Non-distressed sales seem to have an inverse relationship to foreclosures and short sales. Placer county seems to prove that theory wrong. Distressed properties now make up more than half the real estate sales in Placer county – 55% of homes sold in September were either foreclosures or short sales.

Maybe everyone just waited until September of this year to buy. With the average sales price falling 28.4% over last September who can blame them? The average sales price is now $348,455 bringing the average price per square foot to $161.57

Inventory in Placer county sits at 7.2 months based on the last 12 months of sales and 5.8 months based on the last 6 months of sales.

Perhaps you already live here… but maybe you want to know more. Here are five of the most commonly cited reasons for people to move to Roseville:

Proximity to downtown Sacramento, but really – who needs it?

Roseville used to be one of those cities which was nice to live in because it was so close to Sacramento. Unless you are in commute traffic, the distance to downtown Sacramento – about 20 miles – can be covered in approximately a half hour. But lately, if you hate the commute, you can skip it. Roseville has become one of the fastest growing commercial hubs, with malls, offices and restaurants that can put downtown Sacramento to shame. And more businesses (hospitals, malls, restaurants) are moving to Roseville, making it a city to commute to, not from.

Have you Noticed how Clean it is?

Sure, there are older parts of Roseville that are charming and, er… hard to drive through. But the newer areas and especially the business districts have been planned with a focus on cleanliness and an eye toward making roads and neighborhoods pleasant to look at and drive around in. The city of Roseville also passed a law in the 1990s mandating nine acres of parks for every 1000 residents, twice the amount required by other cities in California of the same size. The city continues to follow a policy to maintain miles of trails for biking and walks along greenbelts.

Speaking of Biking…

The League of American Bicyclists recently awarded Roseville the Bicycle Friendly Community Award – Roseville was the first city in Placer county to receive this award. And why not? Roseville has 83 miles of on street bike lanes and 27 miles of off-street paths. It also hosts an annual bicycle event – the Roseville Bikefest. This year’s event occured on October 4th at Quail Glen Elementary School.

The Schools, the Schools!

I’m sure there are numbers out there to prove it, but you cannot beat word-of-mouth. One of the biggest reasons cited by home buyers in Roseville is the schools. Even when they would rather live in the country, most home buyers – if they are parents – will pick a home in the greater Roseville area for the proximity to nature trails, hiking, and fishing, while staying within the Roseville city school district.

Historic Old Town Roseville

If you’re bored on any evening, you can always head over to Historic old town Roseville. It has recently received a 13 million dollar facelift! The Historic Old Town Merchant’s Association also organizes special events like the Strawberry Festival in spring and a car show in the summer. Main street is shut down for these events and it’s a great place to bring family and friends or just hang out by yourself. Whether you are looking for a good restaurant, shopping or are looking for a quiet time in a museum, you can find it here in Old Town.

Convinced yet? Or maybe you didn’t need to be. Maybe you’ve loved Roseville all along and have wanted to buy a home here since you were a child. Well, what are you waiting for? A list of available homes, perhaps? Allrighty then. Go here!

I’ve been working on a report showing price changes by area in Placer County so you can see which areas are retaining their values better / worse than others.

One thing I do have to add to the chart, however, is some detail about how many units are selling.  Without that data, you can get into some pretty interesting — and wrong — conclusions.  For example, is Applegate really booming?   Well, it sure looks like it, until you realize that in each month shown (August of ’07 and August of ’08), exactly one home sold in Applegate, so the numbers are about as statistically in-significant as they can be.

Be that as it may, you can check out how your areas have done here in a rough way, and we’ll have an improved version of this information going forward.

Placer County Area By Area Price Changes

I’ve fixed a few bugs and added data to support more community pages.

We now have basic community information and active and sold listing maps in place for:

• Sacramento County
• El Dorado County
• Placer County

There’s still a long way to go on the bug fixing and improving the look of the pages.  I was learning how to do map mash ups at the time, and at the same time sometimes being too clever with the fonts, so it’s none too pretty, but I can clean that as we go.