The biggest winner for the most change in Placer county this month is clearly the short sales chunk of real estate sales. While most of us in the real estate business (me included) like to warn our home buyers that short sales rarely sell – thanks to the bank approval process which can take longer than a month and sometimes never – we might have to change our tune. Closed short sales have undergone a 257% increase since year over year in Placer county and now make up 16% of all sales! Foreclosures, of course, continue to dominate the market at 47.6% of sales and non-distressed homes are at 36.2% – roughly a third, which is where they were last month as well.

Unit volume is up 19.8% year over year. However, non-distressed sales have fallen by 34% over last December.

The market seems largely unchanged over last month, but markedly different over last year in terms of prices as well. Sold price per square foot has fallen 22.3% year over year – from a high of $192.64 to $149.72. Last month, it was $155.52. The average sales price last month was $333,473. It is currently $322,245, not a huge change from last month, but a drop of 27% year over year, down from a high of $440,433. Median sales price is also down 18% year over year from $365,000 to $300,000 in December 2008.

Inventory in Placer county is currently at 5.8 months based on the last year of sales and 5.3 months based on the last six months of sales. This is better than last month’s numbers of 6.3 months and 5.5 months for the same period. Incidentally, this is the second month in a row of better inventory numbers.

Unit volume in Roseville has increased 15.5% over last November. Now this might not seem like a large number until you see that foreclosure sales are up 250% and short sales are up 67% for the same period. Only non-distressed sales have seen a drop in unit volume: a 51% drop, to be precise. 63 foreclosures sold in November in Roseville, 20 short sales also sold and the remaining 36 were non-distressed sales.

53% of all sales are now foreclosures, 17% are short sales and the rest non-distressed. Roseville is amongst the few areas in the tri-county area where a large third of all sales are non-distressed. We seem to see non-distressed sales take up a smaller and smaller portion of the sales pie every month.

And the reason (or it could be a chicken or egg question here) is that prices have fallen 21%. Average price per square foot has gone from a high of $192.58 last November to $151.92 this November. Average sales price also dropped 22% for the same period: from $383,670 to $299,792. Median sales price also suffered a loss of 19% from $364,900 to $295,000.

Inventory is at 4.4 months based on the last year of sales and at 3.7 months based on the last 6 months of sales.

Well, it’s nice to know that someone out there likes big houses! Whereas everywhere else, smaller and smaller homes are being sold, Lincoln has remained steady in its appreciation of big rambling homes. The average house selling in Lincoln is still right around 2200 square feet. But perhaps that is just the kind of home one finds here.

The rest of the news isn’t good, of course. There isn’t much good news in the real estate market lately unless you’re a buyer. Consider this: foreclosure sales have jumped 219% and short sales have jumped 180% since last November. Non-distressed sales have fallen 43.6% for the same period. 51.4% of all sales in November were foreclosures, 18.9% were short sales and a mere 29.7% were non-distressed. Which means more than two-third of all homes sold in Lincoln were distress sales.

A fact that always puts downward pressure on prices and this November was no exception. The average sold price per square foot in Lincoln has fallen 27.4% since last November from $189.08 to $137.23.  The average sales price has fallen 27.4% – hand in hand with the average sold price per square foot – from last November’s $427,736 to rest at $311,579. Median sales price has dropped 24.3% from $379,900 to $287,500 for the same period.

Inventory is at 6 months (based on the last year of sales) and 5.3 months (based on the last 6 months of sales.)

Home buyers just cannot get enough of the foreclosures! Last November, Rocklin saw that a quarter of the homes sold were foreclosures. Today, that number has doubled. Half the homes sold in Rocklin this November were bank-owned. And that doesn’t even include the short sales, which made up about 19% of the sold inventory. Total unit volume was up 50% over last November. That should give you a pretty good picture of the real estate market…

…and where prices were headed this last month. Of course, no prizes for guessing: downward. The average sold price per square foot has fallen 14.3% over last year from a high of $181.86 to $155.79. The average home sold for 22.2% less. What would have fetched $453,913 last November, today can command a sold price of $353,068. Median sale price has also fallen 17% from $388,500 to $322,500 for the same period. Interestingly enough, the average home sold was also 9.2% smaller than last November, a trend we seem to be seeing all over the tri-county area (except maybe El Dorado county.)

Inventory in Rocklin is at 4.4 months based on the last 12 months of sales and 3.9 months based on the last 6 months of sales. Foreclosure inventory however is at a mere 1 month!

Distress sales have finally caught up in Placer county after lagging behind Sacramento county for a long time. In this way, Placer is a lot more like El Dorado than Sacramento. The majority of sales this November were distress sales, a marked change from last month’s real estate sales, which were evenly divided between distressed and non-distressed sales and the month before then, where non-distressed dominated the real estate scene. Here are the details.

148 foreclosures sold in November, making up 48.7% of all sales. 51 short sales also sold, making up 16.8% of all sales. Foreclosure sales then have increased 174% over last year and short sales are up 143% over last year. As usually happens, the increased number of foreclosures on the market fueled sales and unit volume was up by 20.6%. Nondistressed sales suffered a decline of 41% – only a third of the market is now made up of non-distressed properties.

Obviously, this change has put a downward pressure on real estate prices. Sold price per square foot has fallen again. Last month, it was $166.99. This month, it is $155.52 a drop of 21.8% over last year’s high of $198.93. The average sales price for a house is also down 20.5% from $419,476 last November to $333,473 this November. This is also lower than last month’s average of $368,980. Median price has also declined 17.6% over last November’s high of $375,000 to rest at $309,000.

Inventory is at 6.3 months based on the last 12 months of sales and 5.5 months based on the last 6 months of sales. This is slightly better than last month’s inventory numbers of 7.3 and 6.2 respectively, but it’s too soon to tell if it signifies anything as wonderful as a real estate recovery.

What a change Lincoln has been through over the past year! As with all communities where brand new homes were growing during the real estate boom years, Lincoln has seen some big price drops in the downturn. The reason, of course, is the number of foreclosures. 48 foreclosures and 19 short sales sold in the month of October in Lincoln. That makes up 55.2% and 21.8% of all sales respectively. Non-distressed sales fell by 52.1% – a total of 20 non-distressed homes sold, albeit at huge discounts. Overall sales were up by 52.8%.

Sold price per square foot fell by 23.8% – from last October’s $188.51 to this year’s $143.71 and so home buyers were able to afford a home 5.1% bigger than last year – about a hundred square feet bigger. The average home sold for 19.9% lower than last October’s high of $409,984 to $328,440.

Currently, active inventory is almost equally divided between non-distressed and distressed homes. But that could change if the 199 short sales bring prices down further. Lincoln currently has 6.4 months of inventory (based on the last 12 months of sales) and 5.5 months of inventory based on the last 6 months of sales.

Those that have to sell, must. Those that don’t, don’t. (With apologies to Bernard Shaw.) Well, you get the idea. 9 foreclosed homes and 2 short sales sold in Granite Bay this October and while that might not seem like a lot to some homeowners, especially in Sacramento county, it is enough in Granite Bay to cause a sea-change in the real estate landscape. Compare these numbers to the fact that only one foreclosure and one short sale sold last year in October. As such, non-distressed home sales have fallen by 54.5% over last October.

The average home which would have sold for $913,423 last October has now suffered a 15.8% decline in price and would sell for $768,978 based on this October’s numbers. Median price has also fallen for the same period. It dipped 26.1% – from $875,000 to $647,000. Sold price per square foot – a more accurate measure of price declines – fell 17.7% from $265.81 to $218.78 for the same period.

Overall unit volume of sales increased 23.1% and inventory currently rests at 13 months (based on the last year) and 10.9 months (based on the last six months of sales.)

We see the same trend with real estate in Roseville in Placer county as Fair Oaks in Sacramento county: namely that sales and prices have a direct relationship. Sales and prices are both down again this October in Roseville. I think we are beginning to see a trend emerge.

Overall sales fell by 26.5% this October over last year for the same period. Non-distressed sales fell by 56.6%. The majority of the sales are now foreclosures, which gained momentum (32% more foreclosures sold this October) and short sales (44.2% more sold this October as compared with the last.)

Distressed sales now make up the majority of the houses sold in Roseville. 44.6% are foreclosures, 15.7% are short sales and 39.8% are non-distressed. This is a marked change from last October where non-distressed homes still outnumbered distress sales by a 2 to 1 majority.

Accordingly, price per square foot has fallen by 19.3% from last October’s high of $195.31 to $157.59 this October. Average sales price for a house in Roseville is now $339,280 – 18.7% lower than last year’s October average of $417,345. Median sales price has fallen 20% from $375,000 to $300,000 for the same period.

Total inventory based on the last twelve months of sales is at 5 months and based on last 6 months of sales is at 4.2 months. Interestingly, total foreclosure inventory is at 1.6 and 1.3 months based on last 12 months and 6 months of sales respectively.

Placer county has always been different from Sacramento county and this month’s market report underlines that fact. While in Sacramento county, foreclosures have fueled falling prices and higher sales all around, Placer county has seen a decline in sales. There has been in fact a drop of 18.4% in overall sales from last October to this October. Foreclosures however saw an almost 100% increase – from 58 last October to 114 this last month. Last year, the majority of sales were non-distressed (74.7%); this October they are evenly divided between foreclosures on one side and non-distressed and short sales on the other. See? I told you Placer county was its own story.

That said, Placer county has not been immune to the price declines we are seeing everywhere. Sold price per square foot was down 21.4% over last October to rest at $161.99. Average sales price is down 19.5% from last October’s high of $458,127 to $368,980. Median price is down 22.4% from $399,680 (October 2007) to $310,000 this October.

Based on the last 12 months of sales, inventory in Placer county sits at 7.3 months and based on the last 6 months of sales inventory sits at 6.2 months.

Looking for something to do this Halloween? Here are two highly recommended events you can attend:

Trick or Treat Faire at Sunset Center in Rocklin

Just for kids! (Accompanied by an adult) An event for kids at the elementary school age and younger. Dress up your young tots and take them to their first (of fifth) Halloween to do some trick or treating. Tickets are $5 per child and you might get to eat the candy yourself! From 4:00 p.m. to 6:30 p.m. A great alternative to traditional neighborhood trick or treating, the city of Rocklin organizes this event each year as a safer option. There are games, prizes and treat bags! And prizes are awarded for the best costume, so dress them up!

Callson Manor Haunted House

If you’re looking for a more serious… er… fright, head over to the Callson Manor Haunted House at the Placer County Fairgrounds in Roseville, which promises to be “an attraction of a higher caliber.” Tickets are $30 for the entire attraction. The Haunted House is open between 7:30 and 10:30 p.m.

Although their website doesn’t say anything about children and what ages are recommended, use your own discretion. And have a screaming good time!

I, for one, will be shivering under the sheets.